Russia has set its grain export quota for the February 15 – June 30, 2026, window at 20 million metric tons — nearly double the quota from the same period last year. For international wheat buyers, this signals strong availability and competitive pricing through the remainder of the marketing year.
Key takeaway: With a 20 million MT quota and ample stocks from a 91 million MT wheat harvest, Russian wheat supply will remain robust through June 2026. FOB Novorossiysk prices currently sit at $183–$187/MT — among the most competitive globally.
The Numbers Behind the Quota
Russia's 2025/26 wheat crop came in at 91.36 million tonnes — the third-largest on record. From July through December 2025, the country shipped approximately 25 million tonnes of grain, including a record monthly peak of 5.5 million tonnes in October alone.
For February, IKAR (the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies) estimates wheat exports at 3.1–3.2 million tonnes. With the doubled quota, the government is signaling confidence in available supply and a willingness to keep Russian grain flowing into global markets.
Current FOB Prices — February 2026
| Commodity | Spec | FOB Novorossiysk | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milling Wheat | Grade 2, 12.5% protein | $187/MT | Stable |
| Milling Wheat | Grade 3, 11.5% protein | $183/MT | Stable |
| Feed Barley | Max 12% moisture | $150/MT | Stable |
| Corn (Maize) | Grade 3 | $148/MT | Stable |
| Sunflower Oil | Refined | $960/MT | Stable |
Prices as of February 21, 2026. Source: GrainsBrok API / CBOT-based FOB estimates. View live prices →
FOB wheat prices have been remarkably stable since September 2025, trading within a narrow $5/MT band around $227–$232 for Grade 2 on the open market. GrainsBrok's direct export channel currently offers significantly more competitive rates at $183–$187/MT for qualified buyers.
Where Russian Wheat Is Going
Destination patterns have shifted notably this marketing year compared to 2024/25:
- Egypt remains the top buyer at 4.56 million tonnes (Jul–Dec), cementing its position as Russia's largest wheat customer
- Turkey has recovered strongly to ~4 million tonnes after lifting its import ban in June 2025
- Iran surged to 1.8 million tonnes — a major increase from just 1.3 million for all of 2024/25
- Bangladesh imported 1.3 million tonnes, down from 2 million the prior year
- Jordan recently issued a tender for up to 120,000 MT of milling wheat, with offers due February 24
2026 Harvest Outlook: Favorable So Far
Looking ahead, the 2026 winter wheat crop is showing mixed signals. On the positive side, favorable soil moisture reserves are creating good conditions for spring crops. Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut has indicated optimism about the upcoming season, with Russia targeting long-term grain production of 170 million tonnes annually by 2030.
Early forecasts for the 2026/27 wheat harvest range from 80 to 91 million tonnes — a wide spread reflecting weather uncertainty in southern growing regions. IKAR projects 86–91 million tonnes, while SovEcon is more conservative at 79.8–87.9 million tonnes.
For buyers planning Q3–Q4 procurement, this creates a potential buying window: if the harvest comes in strong, new crop prices in July–September could dip to seasonal lows. If it disappoints, old-crop prices may firm earlier than usual.
What This Means for Your Procurement
The doubled export quota combined with stable prices creates favorable conditions for buyers:
- Book now for March–April loading — FOB prices are at seasonal lows and supply is guaranteed under the expanded quota
- Consider forward contracts for May–June — locking in now hedges against potential pre-harvest tightening
- Diversify origins within Black Sea — Russia's competitive pricing makes it ideal for blending strategies
- LC at sight remains standard — payment terms are straightforward with established banking channels
Secure your wheat supply at today's prices
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